Inside the Engine Shortage

Episode: # 84
Guest: Rick Tobey
Hosted By: Patrick Kraus

How Constraints, Traceability, and Early Decisions Shape the Path Forward

Engine programs rarely stall because nobody is trying hard enough. They stall because constraints stack up. Shop access. Lead times. Records. Operator requirements. Repair pathways. The economics of whether an engine should fly, be green-timed, be built, or be dismantled. The practical work is not just finding the part. It is understanding which constraint is controlling the outcome, then choosing the path that can actually move.

Key Takeaways

  • Engine programs are shaped by constraints: shop capacity, repair pathways, records, operator requirements, and time.
  • The first strategic question is often whether the engine can fly, be green-timed, be built, or needs to be dismantled.
  • Traceability determines whether high-value material can move forward or becomes unusable.
  • In a constrained market, small delays compound. Clean records, fast approvals, and proactive shop coordination matter.
  • More options can create more value, but only when alternate repair paths remain compliant and acceptable to the operator.
  • Future technologies like additive manufacturing may change what is possible, but they also create new questions around repair, acceptance, and lifecycle support.

In the engine market, it’s tempting to talk about outcomes as if they’re decided by effort alone (how hard a team works, how badly an operator needs a solution, how urgent the timeline feels.)

In reality, outcomes are usually decided by something less dramatic and far more practical: constraints.

Shop access. Lead times. Limited repair pathways. The records that determine whether a part is usable. The small decisions that either keep an engine program moving, or cause it to stall.

In a Meet the Experts episode of Nose to Tail, Jet Midwest’s Rick Tobey walks through what those constraints look like in real life, and how experienced teams make decisions inside them without losing momentum or standards.

The bottleneck stack: where engine programs slow down

When people talk about the engine market being tight, they often start with parts availability.

That is part of it. But it is not the full picture.

The larger issue is that engine programs move through a stack of constraints. A part can exist and still be hard to use. A repair path can be available and still be too slow. A component can hold value and still be blocked by records, shop access, or operator acceptance.

That is why engine programs require more than urgency. They require constraint mapping.

1) Capacity and access

Shop access is one of the first places programs slow down.

Even when the material exists, the work still has to move through shops with real capacity limits. Some product lines have broader repair networks. Others have fewer viable options. In widebody engine programs, where the components are more specialized and the stakes are higher, those options can narrow quickly.

That creates a practical problem: the question is not only “can this be repaired?”

It is also “where can this be repaired, when can it get in, and what does that path do to the timeline?”

A part sitting in a queue is not moving. A component waiting on a slot is not creating value. And when multiple operators, suppliers, and asset owners are chasing the same limited capacity, access becomes a strategic constraint.

2) Repair pathways

Repair is not one generic lane.

The engine type matters. The module matters. The operator’s requirements matter. The life-limited parts stack matters. The customer’s minimum cycle requirement matters. The fleet plan matters.

If an operator needs a certain minimum cycle stack, that changes what parts are useful. If the fleet is being extended, that changes the value of material that may have looked less attractive a few years earlier. If the repair option is limited or the only practical path is slow, the economics of the decision change.

This is where engine programs become both technical and commercial. You are not just solving a part request. You are solving a path problem.

3) Traceability

Traceability may be the most overlooked bottleneck by people outside the engine world.

Engine parts do not carry value only because they exist physically. They carry value because the records support their use. For life-limited parts, the trace file may tell the story from the birth of the part to where it is today.

That history matters because it determines whether the material can be accepted, sold, installed, or moved forward. A missing record is not a clerical inconvenience. It can change the value of the part entirely.

Practical takeaway: A bottleneck is rarely one thing. It is the stack that slows the program down.

The first fork: can it fly, green-time, build, or dismantle?

One of the earliest decisions in an engine program is also one of the most important:

Can this engine still fly?
Can it be used for green time?
Should it be built?
Or is the right move to dismantle it?

That question is strategic because it changes the entire decision tree:

  • timeline
  • budget commitment
  • risk profile
  • downstream options

That question matters because every path creates a different timeline.

If an engine can fly, the return may be quicker. If it can provide green time, it may help an operator avoid a more expensive shop visit for a period of time. If it needs to be built, the team is looking at a different level of capital, planning, and shop coordination. If it gets dismantled, the asset becomes a longer recovery process: parts, records, repairs, trace, sales support, and time.

A teardown is not just an action. It is a commitment.

Once an engine is dismantled, the team is no longer managing one engine as a unit. It is managing the many decisions that come after it: what to repair, what to scrap, what records support the material, what customers need, what shops can handle, and how long the sales cycle may run.

That is why the first fork matters so much. It sets the business timeline before the repair work even begins.

The decision is technical, but the impact is strategic

The wrong first move can commit the team to a path that is slower, more expensive, or less flexible than it needed to be.

That does not mean the answer is always “keep it flying.” It means the answer needs to be evaluated before momentum takes over.

A good engine program starts by asking what the asset can still do, what the market needs, what the records support, and what the repair environment will allow.

Practical takeaway: Before committing to teardown, clarify what the asset can still do and what each path actually requires.

Traceability is value

In engine programs, records are not paperwork after the fact.

They are part of the asset.

That is especially true for life-limited parts. A disk, shaft, or other high-value component may look like a valuable piece of material, but the market does not evaluate it by appearance alone. It evaluates whether the trace supports the story of that part.

  • Where has it been?
  • How many cycles does it have?
  • What engine did it come from?
  • What records prove its history?
  • Can the next buyer or operator accept it?

Those questions determine whether the material can move forward.

Records create confidence
Traceability creates confidence because it reduces uncertainty. It gives the next person in the chain a reason to trust the part, the history, and the decision.

Without that confidence, the value changes.

That is why experienced teams treat records as a commercial and technical priority from the beginning. They do not wait until the sales conversation to discover that a trace issue may block acceptance. They review early, identify risk, and understand what the material can realistically become.


The hidden cost of weak records
Poor records do not always create one dramatic failure. More often, they create drag.

They slow down quoting. They create extra review cycles. They trigger buyer hesitation. They force follow-up questions. They may require another pathway, another customer, or another decision.

In a constrained market, that drag matters.

When shop access is tight and customers are under pressure, clean trace can be the difference between momentum and another delay.

Practical takeaway: A part without usable trace is not delayed value. It may be lost value.

The economics of time: why delays change the decision

A tight market does not only change availability.

It changes the economics of time.

When repair capacity is limited, lead times stretch. When new aircraft deliveries are delayed, older aircraft stay in service longer. When older engines stay active, material that once looked less valuable can become important again. When COVID-era decisions pushed operators toward green-time solutions or deferred heavy shop visits, the effects did not disappear overnight.

All of that changes how engine programs are evaluated.

A decision that made sense in a looser market may not make sense when capacity is constrained. A repair path that was acceptable when the queue was shorter may create too much delay today. An asset that seemed marginal may become valuable because the fleet plan changed.

Time can turn into cost

In engine programs, time is not neutral.

Time affects cash flow. It affects customer urgency. It affects shop coordination. It affects whether a part can meet a need while that need still exists.

That is why “best option” is not always the same thing as “technically possible option.” The best path is the one that balances technical acceptability, timing, cost, records, and customer need.

When the market shifts, assumptions have to shift with it.

Practical takeaway: Do not evaluate engine decisions with outdated assumptions. If market conditions change, the model has to change with them.

Reduce friction early

When capacity is tight, teams win by reducing the friction they can control.

No one can magically create shop capacity overnight. But teams can prevent avoidable delays by preparing the work well.

That starts with clean inputs.

Records need to be reviewed. Shop requirements need to be understood. Inspection reports need to be evaluated. Repair findings need quick responses. Operator requirements need to be clarified before they become a surprise.

Small delays compound because each handoff creates another opportunity for the process to slow down.

The practical checklist

Strong teams reduce friction by focusing on the basics:

  • have records ready before the shop needs them
  • approve findings quickly when a decision is required
  • understand operator acceptance criteria early
  • review shop records and inspection reports before committing
  • identify risky material before it enters the queue
  • coordinate with the repair shop before the timeline becomes urgent
  • involve the operator when their urgency can help align the process

None of these steps are flashy. That is the point.

In constrained markets, expertise often shows up in the quiet discipline that prevents work from getting stuck.

Relationships help the process move

Relationships do not replace process. They make the process work better under pressure.

A strong relationship with a repair shop does not mean your work magically jumps the line. But it can help teams communicate faster, solve small issues sooner, and prevent avoidable confusion.

The same is true with operators. When the operator, supplier, and repair shop are aligned around the same need, the process has a better chance of moving with clarity.

Practical takeaway: The best delay is the one you prevent before the queue starts.


More options without lowering standards

In a constrained market, optionality matters.

But optionality only helps when the options are acceptable.

That is the nuance behind DER repairs, PMA, and alternate repair pathways. These options can help create a path forward when the default route is slow, unavailable, or too expensive. But acceptance varies.

Some operators are comfortable with DER repairs. Some require OEM-only repairs. Some evaluate case by case. Some may use DER or PMA internally while applying different requirements when they buy material from the outside.

That variation matters because a technically compliant path is not always a commercially useful path for every customer.

Optionality is not shortcutting

The point of alternate pathways is not to lower standards. It is to understand which compliant repair options can help material move while still meeting the customer’s technical and commercial requirements.

That distinction is important.

A repair path that works for one operator may be a hard no for another. A cost-saving option may only create value if the buyer can accept it. A faster route may not help if it creates downstream approval friction.

So the work is not just finding more options. It is finding the right acceptable option for the situation.

Practical takeaway: More options only help if they are acceptable options.

Relationships are part of the process

The engine world is technical, but it is still a relationship business.

That does not mean relationships replace quality, records, or compliance. They do not.

It means aviation is a small community, and trust makes hard work easier to coordinate. Repair shops, operators, records teams, sales teams, technical departments, and vendors all have to work through constraints together.

When timelines are tight, those relationships matter.

Respect the repair path

Some engine product lines have only a few viable repair options. That reality changes how teams need to operate.

If the repair shop is a critical part of the path forward, the relationship has to be treated with care. Clear communication matters. Clean paperwork matters. Fast approvals matter. Respect matters.

A poor relationship does not create more capacity. A strong relationship does not eliminate constraints. But trust can reduce friction when everyone is trying to solve the same problem.

Reputation follows the work

Aviation has a long memory. People move between companies. Customers become vendors. Vendors become partners. Competitors become collaborators.

That is why reputation matters. Not as a slogan, but as a practical reality.

In a constrained engine market, the team that is easier to work with, clearer in communication, and more disciplined in follow-through is more likely to keep momentum when things get difficult.

Practical takeaway: Trust does not erase constraints. It helps teams navigate them.

The next constraint: additive manufacturing and supportability

New technology changes what is possible.

It does not remove constraints.

Additive manufacturing is a good example. In newer engines, some components can be made in ways that would not have been possible through traditional manufacturing. That is a major shift. Complexity can become less of a cost driver in certain contexts, and design possibilities expand.

But the next question comes quickly:

  • What happens when those parts need support?
  • Can they be repaired?
  • Can they be inspected?
  • Can they be accepted?
  • Are they one-and-done?
  • How does traceability work over time?
  • How does the support ecosystem evolve around the manufacturing method?


Can We Make It? vs. Can We Support It?

This is the same pattern engine programs always return to.

New capability creates new opportunity, but it also creates new downstream questions. The industry still has to build the repair paths, acceptance standards, inspection methods, and support infrastructure around what the technology makes possible.

That is why the future-facing question is not only about manufacturing. It is about lifecycle support.

A part that can be manufactured differently may also need to be evaluated differently, repaired differently, and accepted differently.

Practical takeaway: Innovation changes the constraint map. Teams need to watch not only what new technology makes possible, but what it requires downstream.

Closing: constraints do not eliminate outcomes

Engine programs do not move because everyone wants them to move.

They move because teams understand the constraints, make the right early decision, and reduce friction before it compounds.

The best teams do not ignore constraints. They identify them early, work inside them intelligently, and create more acceptable paths forward without lowering standards.

That is the larger lesson inside the engine shortage.

The useful question is not only, What do we need?

It’s: What is actually controlling the path forward?

When the market is constrained, clarity becomes a competitive advantage.

 

 

About the Guest

Rick Tobey is the Director of Engine Programs at Jet Midwest, where he helps evaluate engines, plan the best path forward (fly vs. teardown), and guide the technical and operational decisions that keep engine programs moving. His work sits at the intersection of shop capacity, records/traceability, repair pathways, and real-world timelines, turning constraints into a plan that can actually execute.

Meet the Experts

Rick Tobey is Jet Midwest’s Director of Engine Programs, where his expertise is in engine evaluation, technical records, repair strategy, shop capacity, and asset disposition. He helps determine the most practical path forward for engines. Whether that means continued operation, repair, green-time use, teardown, or material recovery, Rick balances real-time constraints to help shape key decisions.

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Where we covered this in the episode

  • 00:43-01:19 – What Engine Programs does: build, fly, green time, dismantle, repair, trace, and sales support.
  • 01:53-02:24 – Shop lead times, repair access, and widebody engine repair constraints.
  • 03:33-05:12 – Operator workscopes, LLP stack, cycle minimums, and fleet plan logic.
  • 07:16-08:22 – Traceability, LLP records, repair shop access, and parts “having birthdays” at the shop.
  • 09:06-12:46 – Current market constraints: delayed new aircraft, older engines staying in use, COVID impact, green time, and experienced talent leaving.
  • 14:00-14:36 – Can it fly? Why dismantled engines can turn into a 24-36 month run or longer.
  • 24:43-27:32 – DER repairs, OEM-only acceptance, operator variability, and optional compliant repair paths.
  • 35:02-36:56 – Reducing friction through relationships, paperwork, approvals, shop coordination, and operator support.
  • 39:22-41:22 – Additive manufacturing, LEAP 3D-printed fuel nozzles, complexity for free, and future repair questions.

Engine decisions under real constraints

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